The Roots return to league play in a pivotal matchup against Orange County SC. The two teams sit in second and third in the Western Conference, level on 16 points. Although Orange County enters winless in their last five matches across all competitions, they remain defined by an identity that has caused the Roots problems this season: a defense-first team.
Can the Roots Solve Orange County?
After struggling to break down low blocks against El Paso and Sacramento, the Roots face their toughest test yet: an Orange County side built to sit in one.
Orange County boasts the tightest defense in the Western Conference. Their 0.8 goals conceded per match tops the conference and is second in the league only to Tampa Bay. They are tied for the league lead in clean sheets, with half of their matches resulting in one.
While some teams achieve strong defensive metrics through domination of the ball, Orange County does not. Their 45% possession rate ranks in the bottom five of the league. They rank second to last in possession won in the final third, indicating a squad that does not press or counter press heavily. They are content with sitting back and repelling opponent attacks.
After struggling to generate anything consistently against El Paso and Sacramento, the Roots now face another litmus test. Whether they can solve Orange County through ball movement or individual 1 v. 1 quality will go a long way towards determining whether the offensive struggles are a blip on the radar or a limitation that could cap this team’s ceiling.
On offense, Orange County has made the most of extremely limited opportunities. Their 3.2 shots on target and 11 big chances rank in the bottom five of the league. They simply do not need many chances; they just finish the ones they get. They’ve only squandered four big chances and have logged 11 goals on 11 big chances. For comparison, the Roots have 16 goals on 24 big chances and have missed 14 big chances.
Orange County utilizes crosses and shots outside of the box on some of their most dangerous attacking moments. Looking through their previous matches, many of their goals come from crosses or the scrums that followed failed clearances. The aerial strength of Neveal Hackshaw and Michael Edwards should serve the Roots well. The team will need to avoid the momentary lapses in judgment and execution that have hurt them at times and consistently make the right decision when clearing the box.
However, the advanced analytics reflect a team that may have things breaking their way. Per FootyStats, Orange County’s xGA per match sits at 1.34. Their actual goals conceded per match is 0.8. The underlying numbers suggest Orange County’s defensive record, while strong, may be overperforming.
There is room for regression. The Roots may need it. The pendulum swings both ways. The Roots hope it will swing toward them. If it does, it could reinvigorate a stagnating attack.
Will Peter Wilson be the Difference in Unlocking Orange County’s Defense?
Although Orange County’s defense is tight, the solutions for solving the puzzle they pose are already on the roster. These solutions just take different forms.
One of the solutions is straightforward: having one of the league’s best goal scorers on the field. The Roots will have that advantage this time.
The last time the Roots met Orange County, they played without Wilson, who missed the match due to international duty for the Liberian National Team. His absence left a huge hole in the Roots’ attack.
The Roots reshuffled their formation to compensate for Wilson’s absence. Martin utilized a back three of Michael Edwards, David Garcia, and Neveal Hackshaw with Tyler Gibson and Julian Bravo at the wingback spots. Wolfgang Prentice and Danny Trejo led the attack from the forward spots.
The lineup resulted in their flattest offensive performance of the year. In the first half, the Roots logged just four touches in the opposing box and two shots.
The Roots shifted back to their traditional back four in the second half and subbed Jackson Kiil in to occupy Wilson’s role as a lone striker. The changes paid dividends, as the Roots attack strengthened. They created two big chances, four shots on target, and logged 21 touches in the opposition box.
On Saturday, the Roots will be able to wield one of their strongest weapons. Wilson’s presence alone changes the equation. Wilson’s On-Off, which measures the difference in team performance with a player on the field versus off the field, sits at +1.57.
Kiil’s arrival and the formation change made a drastic difference in the second half in this matchup’s first outing. It’s easy to imagine the difference starting the match in their preferred system with Wilson leading the line will make.
With Wilson at the tip of the attack, the Roots regain their most reliable outlet for long balls and a huge presence in the center of the attack, two things they lacked entirely in their first meeting.
What Happens at Left Back?
Amidst all the changes in the Roots’ starting lineup in the USL Cup match against Sacramento, one interesting thing largely went unnoticed: the return of Julian Bravo. The Roots listed Bravo as a substitute, his first appearance in the matchday squad since his injury against Tulsa FC on April 18.
Bravo returns to a completely different landscape at the position than the one he departed.
When Bravo left the match against Tulsa, Jesus de Vicente had only played 47 minutes on the season. de Vicente had a rough debut against Phoenix and then came off the bench in the next two matches against Orange County and Tampa Bay. Injuries had catapulted de Vicente into the lineup against Tulsa, but the memories of his rough debut against Phoenix still remained.
Since then, de Vicente cemented himself into the starting lineup and a key contributor.
Despite only getting consistent playing time a month and a half into the season, de Vicente ranks in his position’s top 10% of the league for assists and big chances created. Adjusted to a per 90 basis, he ranks in the top 10% of his position for assists, successful passes, chances created, and successful crosses. Most impressively, he is at the top of the league in big chances created per 90. That creative output could be critical against a defense like Orange County’s, where breaking lines and delivering quality service is at a premium.
Beyond that, de Vicente has become a critical piece in the team’s set pieces over the past month. He takes nearly all the Roots’ corner kicks and free kicks.
When asked about de Vicente’s development after the Tulsa match, Martin noted, “He’s on a tremendous path with what he’s brought to us and has made tremendous strides since his first game… He’ll play a big role, and his job now with Bravo coming back is to keep it. When you have guys competing for positions, it makes everyone around them better.”
Due to de Vicente’s statistical profile, he may be the type of player that the Roots need to break down Orange County’s defense. His ability as a chance creator and distributor will be necessary tools in the Roots’ attack. He should start.
Martin has also displayed strong caution in bringing players back. He has tended to bring them slowly, having them first appear as subs and slowly ramping up from there. He did this with Danny Trejo, Florian Valot, Keegan Tingey, and Tyler Gibson. Expect the same for Bravo.
What happens next at left back is less certain. Bravo’s return introduces real competition at a position that, a month ago, had none.
Regardless of what happens at left back, Saturday will be another test of whether the Roots can break a team that is built not to be broken. If they can’t, the questions around the attack will only grow louder.