The Roots travel to Albuquerque to face New Mexico United on an Independence Day showdown. The match represents a critical fixture for the Roots. Oakland currently sits third in the Western Conference with 21 points, while New Mexico sits fifth with 18 points and two games in hand. Saturday’s match represents an opportunity for the Roots to take three points and erase one of New Mexico’s opportunities to make up ground in the standings.
Can the Roots Disrupt New Mexico’s Buildup?
New Mexico’s statistical profile is full of contradictions.
Their 54.5% possession rate ranks second in the Western Conference, behind only the Roots. Their 4.9 passes per possession tops the league. One would expect a team with this statistical profile to control territory and pin their opponents in their own half.
New Mexico doesn’t.
Their field tilt, which measures how much of the possession in the attacking third belongs to each team, is extremely low for a team with so much possession. Their 47.3% rate ranks 8th of 12 in the Western Conference.
Field tilt measures where possession occurs, not just how much a team has. New Mexico’s profile reflects a side that keeps the ball, but does so in the deeper or middle areas. They circulate possession, but struggle to translate it into dangerous attacks. This is further reflected in their low goals per 90 (1.08) and xG per 90 (1.16).
New Mexico’s tendency to circulate the ball in deeper areas will clash with the Roots’ recent uptick in pressing and counterpressing. After spending much of the season in the middle of the pack in final-third recoveries, the Roots have climbed to third in the Western Conference and tied for seventh in the league at 3.6 recoveries per match. They lead the league in possession won in the midfield.
The victor of this clash of styles will go a long way toward determining the outcome of the match. The Roots’ attack is at its best when it doesn’t have to break down an organized defense. Winning the ball in the midfield and higher up the pitch allows them to attack before New Mexico can establish its defensive shape. New Mexico’s style of play naturally creates more opportunities for the Roots to hunt turnovers high up the pitch. Each additional pass in New Mexico’s build-up gives the Roots another opportunity to force a turnover and spring into transition.
That matters because transition features so heavily in the Roots’ most dangerous attacking moments. If Oakland consistently forces turnovers, it may have an opportunity to expose a New Mexico defense whose underlying numbers are far less impressive than its goals-against record.
Does New Mexico’s Defense Regress?
The contradictions don’t end at the tension between New Mexico’s possession and field tilt. Those inconsistencies extend to New Mexico’s defensive statistics.
New Mexico’s defense is allowing a paltry 1.08 goals against per 90. The number ranks third in the Western Conference and is tied for fifth in the league.
They are doing this in spite of allowing 15.2 shots against per match, the worst mark in the Western Conference. The only team allowing more shots per match is Sporting JAX. Right now, that’s company no team wants to keep.
These 15.2 shots per match have added up to an xG against per 90 of 1.62. New Mexico’s actual goals against per 90 of 1.08 is significantly lower than the underlying metrics would suggest.
Strong keeper play has played a role. New Mexico’s keepers have been credited with 1.9 goals prevented this season, the third best mark in the conference. Keeper Kristopher Shakes’ 7.39 FotMob rating is New Mexico’s highest. Per 90, he ranks in the top 15% of keepers in saves per match, save percentage, penalty saves, and penalty save percentage.
The underlying metrics suggest New Mexico has been more vulnerable defensively than its goals-against record indicates. Saturday presents an opportunity for Oakland to test whether those numbers revert to the mean.
Can Trejo and Valot Build on Phoenix?
Strong goalkeeping isn’t the possible explanation for New Mexico’s defensive overperformance. Finishing variance may also be helping New Mexico.
Finishing has been an issue that has plagued Oakland throughout the season.
The match against Phoenix represented a potential breakthrough.
After the Roots squandered big chances in the first half, they exploded for four goals in the second half. Who scored the goals mattered just as much as the goals themselves.
Danny Trejo and Florian Valot both scored their first goals of the season. It was an important moment for both players. Prior to the season, Ryan Martin highlighted Trejo, Valot, and Wilson as the foundation of the Roots’ attack. At the beginning of the season, all three struggled to convert big chances. Wilson eventually broke out of his rut, the others didn’t.
But like Wilson, maybe all Trejo and Valot needed was one goal to get started. Since his hat trick against Las Vegas that opened his scoring on the season, Wilson has scored six goals in his six appearances. The Roots hope that Trejo and Valot will follow suit.
Oakland needs them to. This season, the Roots have been heavily reliant on Wilson, Wolfgang Prentice, and, more recently, Jesus de Vicente for offensive creation. The attack needs to diversify and Valot and Trejo need to be at the center of that effort.
Saturday presents an opportunity for Trejo and Valot to prove their goals against Phoenix were the start of something larger.
If they do, Saturday could be the match where New Mexico’s underlying defensive numbers finally catch up with them.