Roots fans it’s game day! Roots face off at 4:00 p.m. Pacific against Lexington S.C. in just Roots’ second league fixture since June 20. Seems like USL as a whole mostly took the last few weeks off, other than the last (meaningless) USL Cup group stage game. We will be ignoring that game.
Around the Western Conference
From the USL website:
The Western Conference is, simply, tight. Orange County have a one-win cushion at the top and otherwise ten points seperates eleven places from second to twelfth. So while Roots are fifth and Lexington are eleventh, we’re talking about a three point gap (and Lexington have a match in hand).
Roots’ Form
As I mentioned above, we’re ignoring the Spokane game. I didn’t watch it. Sounds like it was shit.
The Roots’ June 20 match against Phoenix was a fucking barnstormer, though.
Scoreless through the first half, the match needed a penalty right at the start of the second half to kick things off. Roots doubled their lead in the 56th on a fast break with Peter Wilson playing in Danny Trejo in literally exactly the kind of combination we’ve been hoping these two could produce. Phoenix got a penalty of their own, and another goal to even things up, but Roots took a 3-2 lead with a Wolfgang pass to a Valot (?) header (?!) right on the goal line. Trejo to Wolfgang to Wilson restored Roots’ two goal advantage a couple minutes later. Phoenix got a third in the 90th minute but couldn’t get another and Roots took the three points.
So what happened against New Mexico?
Well, for one thing, New Mexico shouldn’t play in patriotic red, white, and blue jerseys. Notwithstanding their overlap with Pittsburgh Riverhounds, New Mexico have some of the most iconic kits in the league and these Atletico Madrid knockoffs stick out badly. New Mexico took the lead in the 6th minute after a lengthy spell of possession, ending with Christian Nava controlling a ball at full extension in the box and somehow lofting a shot over McIntosh into the far top corner. Not great by the defense to lose Nava there (Bravo covering) but the conversion rate on that shot is gotta be pretty low. New Mexico scored again in the 41st with Tingey caught out on the break and Zico Bailey running midway between Edwards and Bravo, neither of whom could close the gap, allowing him an easy shot as he crashed the box. In the 65th Peter Wilson earned and then converted a penalty to close the gap but despite a couple decent opportunities Roots could not get an equalizer. USL Analytics (@uslstat.bsky.social) had the xG as New Mexico 1.98 and Roots 1.33. It is worth noting that penalties typically account for a lot of that and the penalty, while probably properly awarded, arose from a foul on Wilson running away from goal. So it’s worth keeping in mind that was xG just gifted to the Roots.
Lexington’s Form
Lexington got a win and a draw from their first three league matches, and then went 0-2-3 through their next five. Things looked bleak for the green ponies, but since May 8 they are 3-0-2, putting them back very much in the mix in the Western Conference. Those wins included a 4-1 win in El Paso (El Paso have been really struggling, only a single league win since April 11), a 2-0 win over San Antonio in Lexington, and a 4-1 win over Tampa Bay Rowdies(!). Lexington’s most recent match was a 4-1 loss at home to New Mexico United.
What a mixture of terrible kinds of luck for Lexington.
Lexington’s goals are spread around the team, with the key playmaker long-time USL stalwart Aaron Molloy with 4g/4a. Phillip Goodrum and Nicolas Firmino each have three goals.
Match Predictions
Bloom
One match in the last month is too little. I don’t even remember who is on the team right now. I am predicting a Roots win because I’d like that. Would be a nice little treat. 2-0 Roots.
Jon
Roots return from its league break in fifth place, not bad compared to last year. Still, this is an important time to pick up three points ahead of Saturday versus Sacramento. I’m going 2-1 Roots, goals by Peter Wilson and Wolfgang Prentice.
Aaron
[Aaron has been slammed with work which is also why no RootsPod]