Is This a Must-Win for the Roots?
Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Roots currently sit in 10th place with 22 points. They trail 8th place Las Vegas Lights by four points and are within six points of 5th place Lexington SC.
Still, things look more dire when you consider the fact that the Roots have the most games played in the conference. All the teams ahead of them have either one or two games in hand on the Roots.
The upcoming schedule only makes the situation more difficult . After this weekend, their next four matches are: away at second place San Antonio FC, home against first place Orange County SC, home against fifth place Lexington SC, and then a cross country trip to face Indy Eleven.
It looks dire.
Luckily, last place Monterey Bay FC comes to the Coliseum this weekend. They are coming to Oakland on a six-game losing streak across all competitions. They have not won a match since June 20th against El Paso.
Ironically, that is the last time the Roots secured three points as well.
Due to the Roots’ own winless streak, each of Oakland’s remaining matches will take on greater importance. If the Roots want to remain in the playoff race, the margin for error is slim.
Anything less than three points on Saturday will be a failure.
Is This the Week the Offense Gets Back on Track?
Saturday’s match will be a case of an immovable force meeting an unstoppable object.
Actually, it’s the exact opposite. The Roots’ offense has been anything but unstoppable and Monterey’s defense has been anything but immovable.
So what happens when an impotent offense meets a sieve of a defense?
The Roots’ offensive woes are well-documented by this point. They have scored one goal in their last five matches. Across those five matches, they’ve had five halves without registering a shot on target. The offense has looked rudderless and impotent.
The engines of the Roots’ attack have failed to ignite. Peter Wilson has not scored since Independence Day and Wolfgang Prentice has not logged a goal contribution in nearly two months. Opposing defenses have learned that stopping those two players means stopping the attack.
Over the same period, Monterey’s defense has been a sieve. In their last five matches, they’ve conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match. Sure, that number is inflated by the five (!) they gave up to New Mexico last Saturday. Even without that outlier, Monterey conceded three goals twice and two goals once. The true statistical outlier is the match where they gave up only one goal.
Just as critical as securing three points, this needs to be the week where the offense gets back on track. The conditions could not be better. It needs to be the match where they begin to appear more like the offense in the first half of the season that regularly scored two goals a match.
The re-emergence of the offense would come at a critical time for the team.
At the beginning of the season, the narrative was that the Roots needed to score at least two goals to secure three points. After the March 7 season-opening 1-0 victory against Monterey Bay, Oakland did not keep a clean sheet in a USL Championship match until the June 13 scoreless draw against Miami FC.
Since then, the narrative has flipped.
McIntosh and the defense have done their job; the attack hasn’t.
Despite McIntosh’s superb performances in recent matches, Oakland’s inability to score has led to their winless streak. The Roots have conceded only two goals across their last three matches. Earlier in the season, the team would have yearned for this. For the past three weeks, they have failed to take advantage of it.
With the upcoming schedule, the Roots cannot afford to waste the opportunity to get their offense back on track against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Saturday’s match presents the best possible opponent for an offense searching for itself.
The Roots need to take advantage of it.
Where Does Peter Wilson Line Up?
As so often for the Roots’ attack, much of Saturday’s success will depend on Peter Wilson.
The biggest question is where he lines up.
Last Saturday’s match saw a shift in the Roots’ usage of Wilson. As we wrote about in our post-game write-up, the Roots started Wilson on the left wing. Bruno Lapa started centrally for the Roots.
It did not work.
In the first half, the Roots’ put forth one of their worst offensive performances of the season. Wilson touched the ball in non-dangerous areas and often found himself outside the Roots’ own box.
As we wrote on Monday, “No good will come from the league’s defending Golden Boot winner’s second-biggest heat area being the outside of his own box.”
About halfway through the first half, the Roots shifted Wilson back toward his typically central position The heat maps bear this out.
Lapa’s heat map for the first 25 minutes shows him in a more central position, in places that Wilson usually occupies:
While the final twenty minutes of the first half saw him play more on the wing:
Wilson saw the inverse happen. He started on the wing, often defending in a deeper position:
His remaining time on the pitch saw him move more centrally:
I applauded Ryan Martin for having the stones to try something so new and drastic when the normal has not been working. I also applauded him for recognizing the problem on Saturday quickly and moving his most dangerous player back into his most effective position.
With so much on the line Saturday and so many uncertainties surrounding the attack, the Roots cannot afford to gamble with the one certainty they have: Peter Wilson being dangerous in his typical role. There is no reason to complicate it. Expect him to line up there on Saturday.