Orange County returns to the Coliseum for the third meeting between the two sides this season. The last matchup resulted in a 3-2 loss for the Roots in what felt like a moral victory. Oakland created chances, scored twice, and exposed cracks in a defense that had been one of the league’s stingiest. Since then, Orange County has gone on a bit of a slide while the Roots’ playoff hopes have grown increasingly tenuous. That sets the stage for a match both teams need, but for very different reasons.
Can the Roots Exploit Orange County’s Defensive Regression?
In our preview of the May matchup, we noted how Orange County came into the match conceding only 0.8 goals per match, a number that led the Western Conference and was second only to Tampa Bay.
Still, we noted how Orange County’s defensive performance was significantly overperforming their advanced metrics. Its 1.34 xGA per match was well above its actual 0.8 goals concerned per match. We wrote then that, “there is room for regression.”
That regression came.
The Roots scored twice on Orange County in that match and should have scored more. In the ten matches since the Roots’ game, Orange County has given up two or more goals six times. In their past three matches, they have given up 11 goals. Things reached a low last week when they gave up five to Tulsa.
Despite this run of play, Orange County is still outperforming its advanced metrics.
They are currently conceding 1.30 goals per 90. Their xG against per 90 sits a 1.58. They give up the second most shots per 90 at 14.7. Their possession rate sits at 47.3% and their field tilt sits at 38.2%, the worst mark in the league. They profile as a team that spends large portions of matches defending its own third and absorbing pressure.
Opponents’ poor finishing and excellent goalkeeping have allowed Orange County to continue outperforming its underlying defensive numbers. Their goalkeepers have been credited with preventing 3.23 goals this season, the second-best mark in the league.
Still, Orange County’s recent results suggest that regression is finally catching up with its defense.
The only question is whether the Roots will continue the trend.
Can the Roots Break Down Orange County?
If the Roots hope to continue Orange County’s recent defensive regression, they’ll likely need to revisit a tactic that proved effective in the May match: attacking quickly before Orange County can get organized defensively.
One way to break down a team like Orange County is to attack wide areas quickly while runners from deeper positions exploit the space between the midfield and defensive lines. Teams like Orange County want to remain compact. These early attacks force fullbacks into a difficult decision: stay narrow to protect the backline’s shape and allow an uncontested cross, or move wide and leave space behind them.
The Roots did this to great effect in May. Tommy McCabe (14), Jesus de Vicente (13), Tyler Gibson (12), Neveal Hackshaw (10), and Michael Edwards (9) all got the ball forward quickly with their passes into the final third from deeper positions. The group combined to go 19/32 (59%) on long passes. It was clearly a point of emphasis for the game plan. For comparison, the whole team only completed 16 long passes last week at San Antonio.
In May, both of Oakland’s goals stemmed from attacking in transition moments. After winning possession, the Roots moved the ball wide before Orange County could recover its shape. These moments created the dangerous situations that led to Peter Wilson’s and Wolfgang Prentice’s goals.
If the Roots can’t attack Orange County in transition, there is another way to attack their defensive structure: shoot at it. With the backline focusing on protecting the central areas near goal and the penalty box, players sometimes are afforded the time and space to take a shot from distance. These shots can be dangerous when defenders and attackers obscure the keeper’s vision, deflections alter the shot, or rebounds fall to the attack.
The Roots have shown a greater willingness to shoot from distance in recent weeks. Specifically, Julian Bravo and Bobosi Byaruhanga have shown a propensity and willingness to take these shots. Both have hit the woodwork from distance in recent weeks.
Does Neveal Hackshaw or Michael Edwards start?
The emphasis on transition places significant importance on the back line’s ability to distribute accurately from deeper positions. If the Roots once again look to exploit Orange County this way, Ryan Martin’s choice of center back could prove critical.
Last Saturday’s match against San Antonio saw Martin significantly shake up the starting lineup. Martin gave Neveal Hackshaw the nod over Michael Edwards. For the first time in any USL Championship match this season, Edwards did not start.
The decision was notable not only because it marked Edwards’ first appearance off the bench, but because of just how ever-present he had been. Prior to Saturday, Edwards had appeared in 1,880 minutes out of a possible 1,890.
The question remains whether Hackshaw got the start last Saturday to rest Edwards or because of Martin’s preference for the veteran.
Orange County is comfortable defending without the ball and will look to remain compact. That makes the quick progression into the final third especially valuable when transition opportunities arise.
Michael Edwards has displayed the ability to deliver those passes. On the season, Edwards has delivered 65 accurate long balls at a 49.2% clip. Both numbers rank in the top 15% of the league for his position.
While Edwards has been solid in the area, long-range distribution is one of Hackshaw’s greatest strengths. Despite playing nearly 600 fewer minutes, Hackshaw has completed ten more accurate long balls (75) while posting a nearly identical completion rate (48.7%).
Pushed out to per 90, Hackshaw is averaging 5.19 accurate long balls per match, a measure that sits in the top 13% of the league. Edwards is delivering 3.11. Hackshaw is averaging more than 1.5 times more long passes per match than Edwards with nearly identical accuracy.
Still, Roots fans are aware of the limitations of Hackshaw’s game. Pace and stature are areas where Edwards possesses the edge on Hackshaw. It’s a trade-off that Ryan Martin needs to grapple with.
David Garcia’s return and strong form further complicate the equation. Last week, Garcia demonstrated an ability to play those progressive passes from deeper areas. Garcia may reduce the need for Hackshaw’s passing and allow Martin to prioritize Edwards’ defensive strengths without sacrificing distribution. On the other hand, Martin may decide to double down on the importance of this progressive passing and pair Garcia with Hackshaw to maximize the Roots’ ability to break lines and attack in transition.
With every match carrying significant playoff implciations, the decision between Edwards and Hackshaw could prove pivotal. The choice is more than a defensive one. It may help determine how effectively the Roots can create the transition opportunities that proved so successful in May.