Last week’s victory against Phoenix felt like a cathartic release for the Roots and their supporters. As Tyler Gibson put it, “that was a fucking shift.” Saturday offers a chance to see whether the shift was permanent or temporary in yet another critical match in what has become a never-ending line of critical matches for Oakland.
Can the Roots Deal with the Press?
When the Roots played Colorado Springs in May, one of the major questions heading into the match was whether the Roots could handle Colorado Springs’ press.
They didn’t.
In a match that foreshadowed their offensive struggles in June, Oakland’s attack failed to ignite.
The Roots dominated possession (55-45), but Colorado more than doubled the Roots’ shot output (6-14) and doubled Oakland’s touches in the opposition box (14-28). The Roots only managed to create one big chance and managed no shots on target. They ended the night with an xG of less than one.
This time, Colorado Springs still enters as one of the league’s best high-pressing teams, just not quite at the same level as they were in May. In May, Colorado Springs led the league with 5.2 recoveries in the final third per match. They’ve fallen to second in the league with 4.2. Still, they are a team that wants to press high. That’s a statistical profile that has given the Roots trouble all year.
In the five matches where the Roots faced a team in the top third of the league in possession won in the final third, the Roots averaged 0.8 goals, 7.8 shots, 2.2 shots on target and 13.2 box touches per match. Those matches include a match where the Roots played down a man for a half and a match where the Roots played up a man for 70 minutes.
Still, those numbers come in significantly below the Roots’ season averages of 1.27 goals, 11.5 shots, 3.6 shots on target per match, and 19.5 touches in the opposition box.
About a third. That’s about how much the Roots’ offensive output drops against these teams.
In those previous matches, the Roots tried to control possession. They only lost the possession battle once in those five matches and it was the game where they played a man down.
When teams disrupt the Roots before they can build, Oakland’s attack disappears. Colorado Springs is built to do that.
But what if the solution isn’t controlling the ball?
Do the Roots Concede Possession Again?
On paper, some of Oakland’s and Colorado Spring’s statistics appear extremely similar. They both possess similar long pass shares, recovery margins, and challenges per 90.
The biggest area of similarity? Possession. The Roots control the ball 54.7% of the time. Colorado Springs has it 54.5% of the time.
The last time the two sides played in May, the Roots won the possession battle, but lost the match. That statistical reality has become commonplace this season for the Roots.
Still, in the past two weeks, something interesting has happened.
In the past two weeks, the Roots have conceded possession.
In the victory against Indy Eleven, the Roots lost the possession battle 52%-48%. The number does not seem eye-opening on the surface. However, the figure looks much different when you consider that Indy typically concedes possession for roughly 60% of a match.
Last week against Phoenix, the difference in possession became even clearer. Rising dominated possession against the Roots, as they more than doubled up the Roots (32% – 68%). For context, Indy concedes possession more than any team in the league, controlling the ball for just 39.8% of matches. Against Phoenix, the Roots came in significantly below even that league-worst possession figure. Despite that, the Roots scored three goals and shut out Phoenix, while having five big chances to Phoenix’s two.
That’s two straight wins in which the Roots succeeded by giving the opponent something they spent most of the season trying to take away: possession. In a stretch of the season where every match matters, the Roots have found success conceding possession and attempting to hit on the counter. It may be a small sample size, but Ryan Martin may elect to continue with what’s been working.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Does Tommy McCabe Stay on the Bench?
In the spirit of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” the question is whether Tommy McCabe stays on the bench.
After being McCabe was unavailable against Indy Eleven, McCabe found himself on the bench against Phoenix. Ryan Martin gave Tyler Gibson the start.
The veteran responded with a solid, workman-like performance. In a match where the Roots conceded possession and defended, Gibson was a key component of the machine. He led the Roots in recoveries. He helped quickly transition the Roots from defense to offense in a match where they wanted to counter, ranking third on the team in passes into the final third. A quarter of his completed passes went into the final third from his defensive midfielder spot.
Still, Martin’s affinity for McCabe is well-known. Martin has called McCabe, “a coach on the field” and the “brains behind a lot of what we do.”
All season, Martin has shifted the starting lineup. The team has seen countless starting lineups. Florian Valot on the wing, Florian Valot deep in the midfield, Florian Valot as an attacking midfielder. Mark Fisher at right back. Mark Fisher in the midfield. Peter Wilson to the bench. Peter Wilson back in the lineup. Neveal Hackshaw taking over for Edwards. Edwards getting the nod again.
The only constant remained Tommy McCabe.
For me, Martin benching McCabe always felt like crossing the Rubicon.
And last Saturday, he did it. And it has worked.
Two appearances for Gibson, six points for the Roots. Gibson has helped anchor a midfield that looks comfortable defending and breaking in transition.
If the Roots are going to keep playing this way, there may be no going back now.