Roots fans it’s game day! Roots host class-of-the-USL Louisville City F.C. at 7:00 p.m. on July 6, 2024 at Pioneer Stadium on the campus of CSU East Bay in Hayward, California. By hook and/or crook, the Roots have continued their winning ways, but this match will be their hardest test under Glinton.
Louisville City F.C.
I looked some at Louisville’s circuitous route to the USL in my preview post from last season.
There are no two ways about it–Louisville City are very good. They have scored 46 goals, fourteen goals more than any other team and slightly better than twice the Roots’ goals total. More than the Roots’ scored in the 2021 and 2023 seasons. Louisville spreads the goals around, but their top goal scorer is Wilson Harris. Harris is a 24-year-old from Los Angeles who played for a couple of developmental academies before landing in the Sporting Kansas City youth setup and making a handful for the MLS side during that time. Harris was not in the SKCII team that visited the Roots at the end of the 2021 season, but he did regularly appear that season on the team with Danny Barbir. In 2022 he was dealt to Louisville and has gotten above or near double-digit goals in all three seasons. Ray Serrano has six goals, and then another six Louisville players have chipped in three each.
The good news is that Louisville’s defense is only okay, having conceded 21 in 17 matches. That’s still better than the Roots, and also is based on a handful of bad performances against mostly good teams, rather than regularly conceding 1-2.
The other good news is that two of those bad performances have come in the last four week. Louisville traveled to Tampa Bay, to face a Rowdies team a week off of their loss in Oakland. Rowdies took out that frustrating on Louisville, going up 2-0, then dropping the lead with goals on either side of the break, and then taking the points with a goal in second half stoppage time. That was only Louisville’s second loss of the season, and true to form, they followed it with a 1-0 win over a desperately struggling Pittsburgh team. Louisville then had their most head-scratching result of the season, a 5-2 loss at home to Rhode Island F.C..
If anyone put money on this score line there needs to be a match fixing inquiry.
Louisville are not bad, regardless of these sporadic eggs they lay, and trounced Birmingham Legion 4-1 this past week.
Roots’ Form
I mean, pretty good, right? Roots are 6-1-3 under Glinton in the league, 6-0-2 since the Orange County match in Hayward (which I think is fair to say is a reasonable cut-off for Glinton getting settled).
Notwithstanding the generally good form under Glinton, this was one of the Roots’ more comprehensive victories. Fotmob counts zero big chances for Orange County in this match, to the Roots’ four. Orange County had two shots on target, one from a free kick, both from distance and pretty tame. Roots on the other hand had another couple chances they potentially could have converted (although nothing you’d really complain about). Roots’ first was a great cross and great header from Miche-Naider Chery around the 15-minute mark that Camden Riley, uh, helped across the goal line. The second, to ice proceedings, came from quickly-becoming-classic Lindo Mfeka foray into the box drawing a bunch of attention and ending in a crisp pass for Johnny Rodriguez to hammer home from around the penalty spot in the 72nd.
Lineup and Score Predictions
Bloom
Look, I’m about this team under Gavin Glinton. He has them playing really hard. He has them creating turnovers in dangerous areas. He has found a way to get the ball up the field and, crucially, into the box. The defense is standing tall even with only two centerbacks and the fullbacks contributing heavily to the attack, and with Gagi sidelined with injury. There is still a bit of a gap in the team between the strong defensive midfielders and the strong attacking midfielders, but results have shown that to be possible to overcome.
But Louisville are really freaking good and are going to win on Saturday. The lads in purple take it, but it shouldn’t shake your faith in Glinton’s project. The project right now is about finding a workable system, beating midtable and lower teams, and solidifying a playoff position. Worry about beating elite teams when you need to beat elite teams, which is during the playoffs. 2-0 Louisville.
I agree with Jon’s lineup prediction below, including Gagi starting if available.
Jon
I feel like the only change here would be if Gagi is available, then I think Glinton truly has his A-lineup. But with Gagi still on the mend from a leg injury, I’m going with Logue opposite of Hackshaw. Other than that, no surprises from me. I have Reid back at LW, Cedeño at RW, Lindo at CAM, and a midfield pivot of Koze and Riley.
Oakland grinds out a difficult victory, 2-1.
Aaron
Do you guys remember when Atleti drew City in the QFs of the Champions League a few years ago, and to preserve any shot of taking the tie at the Wanda Metropolitano they played essentially in two banks of five at the Etihad? (Some will tell you it was actually a 5-3-2 and the 2 were forced to drop in to midfield so often because of the movement of City’s defenders and deeper midfielders, but don’t listen to those people.) The thing about the 5-5-0 formation is that it nearly worked. Atletico Madrid was a clear 3rd in La Liga that year, and thoroughly pedestrian away from home, while that version of City was one of the two or three best teams in the world that season, and all they could muster in that match was a single goal, and only 1.05 xG according to fotmob, setting up a crazy finish the next week in which the severely outmatched Madrilenian club had a legitimate shot to take the tie to extra time, at least.
Why is this relevant today? Well, see above from Peter. Also, Roots best players continue to be “guys who can play centerback and do other things good too.” So let’s do this. 5-5-0 formation. Make Lou City’s life hell for 75 minutes, then bring on Johnny and Chery to hit them on the break. I see two ways this could go. 4-1 Louisville, or 1-0 Roots. You know which path I’m choosing.