Oakland Roots’ playoff odds took another hit on Wednesday afternoon, suffering a 3-1 loss on the road to El Paso. According to John Morrissey’s data, Oakland’s playoff chances have now depleted to around 30 percent.
El Paso wasted no time with Amando Moreno slotting home a cross just 43 seconds into the match. Four minutes later, Locomotive made it 2-nil when Eric Calvillo’s shot deflected and curled into the net–leaving goalkeeper Raphael Spiegel helpless.
In the second half, El Paso made it 3-nil shortly after playing a corner short, leading to Moreno scoring on an athletic bicycle kick in the 72nd minute.
Oakland got one back at the very end of the match, when Peter Wilson scored after an initial header by Danny Gomez redirected off his leg and past the goal line. It marked Wilson’s 13th goal of the season, tying him for second place in the USL Championship and three behind Golden Boot leader Cal Jennings.
Here are our talking points coming out of Wednesday’s match.
Still a chance?
It’s the end of the season, and like clockwork, Roots are fighting for the final playoff spot. Today’s result certainly paints a picture of doom and gloom around the club, but they still (technically) aren’t out of the race just yet.
In 11th place, Roots still sit six points behind Phoenix in seventh, four behind Colorado Springs in eighth, three behind Orange County in ninth, and one back of Monterey in 10th. Oakland will largely be keeping an eye on those first three teams.
Phoenix has four games remaining, including New Mexico, North Carolina, San Antonio, and Pittsburgh. Each of those teams has more points than Rising.
Colorado Springs has four matches remaining as well. They play San Antonio, Charleston Battery, Las Vegas Lights, and FC Tulsa. Of those teams, only the Lights have a worse record at the bottom of the Western Conference.
Orange County still has two games in hand on Roots, but hasn’t won a game since beating Colorado Springs on August 16. They face Sacramento tonight, El Paso, New Mexico, San Antonio, Louisville, and Indy Eleven.
As for Monterey Bay, they have played one more game than Roots. With three games left, they face Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Las Vegas.
Roots look ahead to Hartford, Las Vegas Lights, New Mexico, and the season finale against Lexington. Oakland, arguably, must win out to reach the postseason.
Peter Wilson was unequivocally the right choice
Oakland Roots’ technical staff took a lot of heat during the early portion of the season for shipping Johnny Rodriguez to Las Vegas Lights in favor of Peter Wilson as their new starting striker. With the season winding down, struggles from the team aside, opting for Wilson over Rodriguez was unequivocally the correct choice.
Wilson came to Oakland after setting the world on fire in the second division of Norwegian football, touting a finishing ability in front of the net.
He struggled to find his footing during the first half of the season, which was epitomized in their July 12 loss to Phoenix Rising, where Wilson missed several clear opportunities to score. He wound up getting subbed out at halftime.
That July 12 match was seemingly a wake-up call for the Swedish Liberian, having now scored in all but one of his nine appearances since then.
Wilson’s 13 goals now put him behind Cal Jennings’ 16 in the Golden Boot race, while Wilson’s 16 goal contributions moved him up to third in the league. In comparison, Rodriguez has eight goals and one assist in nearly 300 more minutes played.
“It’s been a ride; it took some time to adapt,” Wilson said following Roots’ 1-1 tie with Tulsa. “But once I got in the team, and got comfortable, not only on the pitch, but at home and in the whole routine–knowing where the shops are, where I get my food, and all that. I’m really just feeling myself at the moment.”
Lineup choices
Benny Feilhaber made some extensive changes to today’s lineup, including Camden Riley starting in the back line with Gagi Margvelashvili out due to a red card suspension. It meant Roots deployed a three-back system in the early minutes with Neveal Hackshaw on the left, Camden Riley central, and Bobosi Byaruhanga surprisingly deploying on the right.
It was a decision that left the broadcast crew stunned that Feilhaber left Kai Greene out of the lineup. Perhaps September 7’s loss to the Pittsburgh Riverhounds has played a factor in the decision-making, where Greene made several errors on their way to a 2-nil loss. Since then, Greene has only amassed 14 minutes against Phoenix.
Things quickly unraveled for the back line, leading to the early pair of goals. It’s hard to say if the alterations led to the quick disintegration of their defense, or if the defensive struggles just continue to overlap from match to match.
According to the USL’s match center, the data shows that Oakland quickly pivoted to Riley and Hackshaw manning the back, while Bobosi pushed into the midfield.
As for the goalkeeper spot, Spiegel got his third straight start, making it increasingly difficult to justify that he’s helping the already woeful defense. Spiegel came up with a big diving save in the 63rd minute, but other than that, it’s difficult to pick out the good moments from the last two matches.
Although Feilhaber decided to pull Kendall McIntosh after allowing 10 goals in five games, Spiegel has now conceded seven in three. The Swiss keeper undoubtedly offers more as a distributor, but his statuesque playing style on the line has allowed chances in their own box.
Would McIntosh’s quick reaction time have been better suited to stop Charlie Dennis’ free kick against Phoenix, or Eric Cavillo’s deflected goal today? We can’t say from our vantage point, but Oakland’s defense has been at its best when McIntosh can jump on loose balls to regain possession. That has certainly been lost with Spiegel.
Starting Lineups
- Oakland Roots
A few notable changes to Benny Feilhaber’s lineup from the previous game. Wolfgang Prentice and EJ Johnson get the start, while Danny Trejo moves to the bench. Trejo was notably subbed out at halftime in Phoenix. Camden Riley gets his first start since July 19. Also, a loaded midfield with Ali Elmasnaouy, Tyler Gibson, and Bobosi Byaruhanga getting the nod.
- El Paso Locomotive
Timeline
Annnnnnd just like that, El Paso scores on a play down the left side, centering pass to Moreno, and it’s a tap-in after just 43 seconds – 1′
Roots without Gagi, and they are punished in seconds. Terribad start.
El Paso 2-nil – 5′
Cavillo shot takes a deflection, and Spiegel can’t react to it.
Wolfgang Prentice takes a shot on target from the left side of the box. Good job to work himself free – 9′
El Paso with a shot on target – 10′
Leads to a rebound off Spiegel, but leads to nothing.
EJ Johnson has a first-touch shot hit off the crossbar after a great move and feed by Wolfy, but Johnson is called offside – 15′
Johnson takes a shot that’s blocked. Leads to Doner sending a cross deflected out for a corner – 16′
Corner – 17′
Leads to Gibson taking a header on target that’s easily saved.
Corner – 19′
EJ Johnson draws a corner on a dribble in the box.
Riley with a header narrowly wide – 19′
Good pass from Doner.
El Paso corner – 21′
El Paso sends a hard shot narrowly wide – 21′
Good look by Cavillo on the volley.
Free kick in a good area – 22′
Ali drew it on the right side, just a couple of feet outside of the right elbow area.
Plays short to Panos. He sends a pass into Wilson, who tries to catch it out of the air but scuffs his shot.
Gibson sends a shot very wide, too good a chance to miss there – 24′
Ball across the face of the goal, but no one gets good contact on it.
Peter Wilson draws a foul on the edge of the box. It could’ve been a red card. Wilson was on through to goal – 28′
Referee getting feedback in his earpiece. Shocker, no yellow at all, and Peter Wilson is called offside.
Roots stung by officiating, yet again.
El Paso sends a shot high – 38′
Too easy for El Paso to take control in Roots area after a long ball. Speigel a statute, won’t come off his line.
Free kick – 42′
Johnson draws it along the left sideline.
Panos’ ball in batted away from the GK.
Gibson scuffs a shot wide – 45+4′
First half notes:
Oakland Roots looked like they never got off the plane in the first 5 minutes, allowing two goals, but have had progressive moments since then. El Paso arguably should be down a man, but Roots historically have rarely benefited from officiating–it’s an Oakland football thing. Roots with 5 shots, 3 on target, and a big chance missed on 45% possession. El Paso had 8 shots, 2 on target.
Trejo and Gomez enter at halftime – 46′
Trejo sends a shot wide – 46′
Moreno sends a shot wide on a dribble into the box – 49′
Faysal Bettache on, Wolfgang off – 56′
Big diving save by Spiegel – 63′
Could’ve been 3-nil.
Damm on for Doner – 70′
El Paso corner – 72′
Plays short, leads to Cavillo scoring on an overhead bike.
It’s over for Roots; there goes the season.
El Paso corner – 74′
Play into Trejo in the box, but defender toes it to the GK – 81′
Shocker, Abdi Mohamed subs in – 84′
Roots goal – 90+3′
Peter Wilson credited for the goal at the very end. An initial header by Danny Gomez hits off Wilson and goes past the line. He now has 13 goals, six goals in four games.
Nice recap, Sir. I couldn’t catch the match live so this is helpful. I echo your points about the challenges our defense and keeper selections continue to present. I trust and have faith in Benny’s approach yet. These draws and losses are tough on fans but I’m hoping for substantial changes heading into next season. One outstanding action I am still waiting for is some public statement from the club President regarding the pitch product (its lack and meaningful discussion on how this will change). The over-promotion of concerts at matches and merchandise (we do have the best in the league!) continues to overshadow the actual game. As a Day 1 supporter, it’s upsetting to see. ORSC needs to work less on branding and more on their identity as a professional sports team again. Thanks again for all your work on this blog, J.C.