This week, the Roots return home to face Colorado Springs. The Switchbacks present one of the more confusing profiles in the Western Conference. The underlying metrics point to a strong side, yet the table tells a different story. Heading into to the match, the question is whether the Roots will face the numbers or the results.
Who is the Real Colorado Springs?
At the moment, Colorado Springs are performing like a top-tier side in every meaningful metric except the one that matters most: points.
Their recent results reflect a team much better than their 10th place in the Western Conference indicates. In the Open Cup, Colorado demolished MLS side Sporting KC 3-0 before bowing out in penalties to another MLS side Colorado Rapids. Before losing to Las Vegas 2-0 on May 23, the Switchbacks had back-to-back draws against Orange County SC and San Antonio FC, the top two seeds in the Western Conference.
The underlying statistics suggest a team catching difficult breaks. Their expected goal difference of +0.47 is the second highest in the Western Conference.
They possess a formidable attack. Their 1.9 goals per match rank third in the league. The Switchbacks are living in opponents’ boxes. Colorado Springs’ 245 touches in the opposition box rank fourth in the league and first in the Western Conference. The constant pressure in the box has forced opponents into mistakes, as their five penalties awarded also lead the league. Their 1.9 goals per match sit extremely close to their xG of 1.87, a reflection of their efficiency in finishing.
On offense, they are performing where they should be. Things begin to fall apart when examining the other end of the field. Colorado’s xGA per90 sits at 1.36, but their actual goals conceded are 1.9. Colorado’s offense is tracking expectations, the defense is not.
Last week, we discussed how Orange County’s defense overperformed what the underlying statistics said about them. We wrote about how things inevitably revert to the mean. Last Saturday, they did. The Roots scored three goals against a team previously conceding only 0.8.
This week, the Roots face another opponent whose performance does not reflect what the underlying metrics say. Hopefully, regression to the mean is delayed a week in this case.
Can the Roots Break the Initial Press?
A key aspect of Colorado’s offensive success this season is their press. They routinely win the ball back in dangerous positions as a result of it.
The team leads the league in possession won in the final 3rd per match at 5.2 recoveries a game. Their field tilt, which measures the amount of the game played in the opponents’ final third, sits at 58.4%, second highest in the conference. These numbers paint a picture of a team that aggressively tries to win possession after losing it and loves to pin the opponents in the final third.
Sacramento Republic slightly trails Colorado Springs in possession won in the final third. The USL Cup match between Sacramento and the Roots provided a clear example of how the Switchbacks’ press could disrupt the Roots.
Admittedly, Peter Wilson and Wolfgang Prentice did not start, but Sacramento’s aggressive counterpress forced the Roots into repeated turnovers in their defensive third and limited progression. They resorted to safe lateral passing instead of forward progression. The result was only 9 touches in the opposition box, 5 shots, 2 shots on target, and 0 big chances.
With a full lineup against Colorado Springs, the Roots will hope to achieve different results against the press. Recently, the Roots have experimented with different players at the defensive midfielder positions due to injuries. These personnel experiments have helped raise the floor of the team’s attack.
The Roots’ greater offensive consistency in attack in the past four games has come as a result of playing a more progression-minded player at one of the defensive midfielder positions. The introduction of Florian Valot and Tyler Gibson into deeper roles, allows the Roots to bypass the first wave of pressure and play forward earlier. Valot excelled in the role against Las Vegas and as a substitute against Loudoun and El Paso, while Gibson put in a great performance against Orange County on Saturday. Both players inject verticality into transition that will help the Roots beat that press and take advantage of Wolfgang’s and Bertin Jacquesson’s pace along the wings. That shift has been central to the club’s attacking consistency over the last month.
Against Colorado Springs, the same decision point applies. Right now, the Roots’ ability to break the press is personnel-dependent, not structural. Expect them to continue playing the players that allow them to do so.
Can the Roots Pressure Colorado Springs’ Keeper?
Colorado’s goalkeepers lie at the heart of their underperformance this season.
Their performances have driven much of the disconnect between statistics and reality. Former Root Christian Herrera and Colin Shutter have both seen significant time at the position this season. It does not matter who starts, each has struggled to provide reliable shot-stopping.
Colorado’s goals prevented, which measures how many goals a keeper kept out of the net that an average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede, stands at -3.0. FotMob rates Shutter at a 5.89 on the season and Herrera at a 6.33.
Luckily for the Roots, the past few weeks have seen consistency emerge in attack. In the first month and a half of the season, the Roots’ total shots varied. In half of their first six league matches, they logged less than 10 total shots.
The last four matches have seen a consistent upswing with the Roots averaging 15.5 shots per match and 10.25 shots inside the box. Over the last month, they averaged nearly as many shots inside the box (10.25) as they averaged per game in the first six matches (10.83).
This season, Colorado’s defensive underperformance is less about chance suppression and more about what happens after their press is bypassed. If the Roots consistently break Colorado’s first wave of pressure, they’ll face a keeper unit that has struggled to convert defensive stability into shot-stopping reliability.
That is a matchup that consistently favors Wolfgang Prentice and Peter Wilson. It’s one the Roots will need to exploit to sustain Colorado Springs’ underperformance.