Saturday’s matchup against Phoenix will be shaped less by possession and more by what happens when it breaks. The Roots’ growing emphasis on pressing and counterpressing meets a Phoenix side comfortable in possession. How those approaches collide will go a long way in determining the match’s outcome.
Can the Roots Press Disrupt Phoenix’s Build-Up?
Over the past few weeks, the Roots have experimented more with a high press and counterpress. A month ago, the Roots ranked in the middle of the pack in possession won in the final third. Since then, Oakland has risen to 3rd in the conference and 8th in the league in possession won in the final third, while leading the conference in possession won in the midfield.
Much of this shift has come with the reintroduction of Julian Bravo and Bobosi Byaruhanga into the starting lineup. Bravo provides more pace than Neveal Hackshaw, while Bobosi offers more speed than Tyler Gibson or Florian Valot. Their mobility gives the Roots more margin for error when pressing and counterpressing. If the press is broken, Bravo and Bobosi possess the recovery speed to close down space before opponents can take advantage.
Phoenix profiles as a team that enjoys build-up play. Their 51.3% possession rate combined with their high passes per possession and low long pass share percentage reflect that.
Saturday presents an intriguing clash: the Roots’ increasingly aggressive press against Phoenix’s patient buildup. In many ways, it will serve as a litmus test for the Roots’ evolving identity. The press worked effectively against Miami and Birmingham, teams that do not control possession. Now, the Roots will see how it plays out against a possession-oriented side.
Can the Roots Take Advantage of Transition Moments?
The Roots’ press may be the pivotal factor in unlocking the Phoenix defense.
Phoenix appears to favor a compact mid-block. Rising ranks second in the Western Conference in midfield recoveries, but near the bottom in final-third recoveries. Like the Roots earlier in the season, they prefer to regain possession in the middle third rather than press aggressively high up the pitch.
When opponents do advance beyond the midfield, Phoenix’s defense remains solid. Rising are giving up just 10.5 shots per 90 and 1.2 goals per match, both figures ranking third in the Western Conference. They are compact and organized, two traits that have given the Roots fits this season.
Recent matches have shown the Roots’ struggle to break down set defenses. They nearly went three league matches in a row without a goal. The goals they have scored have required some Herculean efforts from individual players. After Wednesday’s match, Martin highlighted how, “It’s so hard when you’re playing low blocks…. Some of the guys haven’t been in moments where the space is so condensed, and they have to operate in different realms.”
The Roots do possess a blueprint for how to deal with these defenses. The May 23 matchup against Orange County provided it. Against one of the stingiest defenses in the league, the Roots were most dangerous not when breaking down a settled defense, but when attacking it before it settled.
If Oakland can force turnovers and attack before Phoenix settles into its shape, the Roots may be able to avoid the empty-calorie possessions that have plagued them in recent matches. If not, Saturday could become another test of their ability to create chances against a set back line, one they have struggled to pass all season.
Will the Weather Impact the Press?
The Roots’ ability to capitalize in transition will depend on sustaining the intensity the style demands. Saturday’s weather in Phoenix may complicate that.
The forecast currently calls for temperatures around 100 degrees at kickoff, with conditions dropping to around 94 degrees by the final whistle.
The Roots experienced a similar challenge in March. The match kicked off in 90+ degree weather. After racing out to a 2-0 start in the first half, they faded late. Phoenix scored in the 85th minute and again in the sixth minute of stoppage time to salvage a draw.
Saturday’s conditions are expected to be even hotter.
The Roots have placed the most stress on defenses the past two matches when they create havoc and get out in transition. The heat’s effect on the Roots’ defensive strategy may have a large impact on how effective the Roots’ attack is. If the press fades in the heat, it doesn’t just change the defense; it risks taking away the Roots’ most reliable path to creating chances.