The Roots travel to San Antonio on Saturday in a season that increasingly leaves little margin for error if Oakland hopes to make the playoffs. The Roots’ chances on Saturday hinge on their ability to impose a specific style of play on SAFC and force SAFC to play a game it doesn’t want to play.
Who Concedes Possession?
In some ways, San Antonio FC and the Roots are spitting images of one another.
Both teams want to possess the ball. The Roots lead the Western Conference with a possession rate of 55.2%, while San Antonio FC slightly trails the Roots with a rate of 55.0%.
Both teams want to build up patiently. The Roots are second in the Western Conference with 4.74 passes per possession and San Antonio ranks fourth with 4.49 passes per possession.
Still, both teams do little with the possession.
Each team has only scored 26 goals on the season. The Roots xG per 90 sits at 1.28, while San Antonio ranks in the bottom of the conference with 1.21. Neither team is getting the ball in dangerous possessions, with the Roots only averaging 19 touches in the opposition box per game and San Antonio averaging 16. For all their possession, it has not amounted to much for either team.
So in a battle of two blunt attacks that both like to have the ball, who concedes possession?
For the Roots to have success on Saturday, they should concede possession. San Antonio’s underlying metrics indicate a team that is not dangerous in possession. Conceding possession will also put the Roots in a more frequent position to attempt to generate turnovers whenever San Antonio springs Oakland’s pressing triggers.
It’s a low-risk, high-reward strategy for the Roots: the best version of Oakland’s attack emerges when it wins the ball and attacks before the defense gets organized. Giving a non-threatening San Antonio attack more possession may actually increase the opportunities for those moments to occur.
Can the Roots Speed Up San Antonio?
Whether the Roots decide to concede possession or not, their success will largely hinge on their ability to control the pace of the match.
San Antonio is one of the most methodical teams in the league. As stated in the previous section, they like to build up patiently and control possession. Even though they control 55% of the possession, they only have a field tilt rate of 48.9%.Their profile reflects a team that uses deliberate, short passing to build up without taking many risks.
Another key aspect in their strategy? Limiting moments in transition.
San Antonio does not want to play fast. They only average 0.85 fast breaks per 90, a rate that ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Equally important to their strategy is limiting opposition breaks. SAFC only concedes 0.90 fast breaks per 90, one of the stronger marks in the league.
The Roots’ recent offensive woes are well-documented. All season, the Roots have looked most lethal in moments of transition. It’s why one of Ryan Martin’s goals for the match against Monterey Bay was to have, “six chances in four passes or less.”
Last Saturday, the Roots nearly did that. They used Bruno Lapa and Bertin Jacquesson to launch presses higher up the field and more frequently than usual for Oakland. They will need to continue this on Saturday.
If Oakland is going to leave Texas with points, it will likely come by imposing a faster pace on the match and forcing SAFC to play at a speed it would rather avoid.
What Happens with Peter Wilson?
In a match where scoring opportunities will be at a premium, the question becomes who on the Roots will capitalize on them.
The August 8 match against El Paso saw the Roots substitute Peter Wilson for Bertin Jacquesson in the 55th minute. Last Saturday’s match against Monterey Bay saw Jacquesson start over the reigning Golden Boot winner.
When asked by our Jon C. in the post-match press conference about the decision, Martin stated that Wilson, “looks a bit hesitant in terms of his ability to run in behind and it feels … a little bit reactive… He’s almost waiting for the ball to go in as opposed to just running and expecting the ball”
When looking back at the decision to sub Wilson for Jacquesson in the El Paso match, Martin noted that, “Bertin added a spark and was better.”
“Was better.”
Those are big words coming from Martin.
Adding further to the story was how effective the Roots looked in the first half with Jacquesson in the starting lineup. They logged 11 shots with five of them on target, recorded ten touches in the opposition box, created two big chances, and, of course, scored a goal.
The only question remains whether that offensive output was due to the lineup changes or an opposing side that had given up 14 goals in their previous five matches. The answer, as always, most likely lies somewhere in the middle. The important answer for Martin is which factor played a larger role.
The last two weeks create a fascinating dilemma for Martin.
Does he roll with the reigning Golden Boot winner, one of the best players in the USL, and a player he has described as one of the two best forwards in the league, even if Wilson has not scored in a month and a half and appears “hesitant”?
Or does he run it back with a lineup that made the Roots’ attack look more potent than it had in the previous two months?
Whichever way Martin goes, we will find out on Saturday.
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