The Roots return to action at a pivotal point in their season. Eighth-place Lexington SC visits the Coliseum to face the 11th-place Roots in a match with significant playoff implications. The matchup presents an interesting tactical clash: Lexington is one of the USL’s most transition-heavy teams, while Oakland has frequently been vulnerable in those moments. The questions brought about by this clash of styles will loom large over the match.
Can the Roots Take Advantage of a Beneficial Bye Week?
Several results broke Oakland’s way during the bye week. Sporting JAX, with its -30 goal differential, pulled off a surprising upset of Lexington SC, Monterey Bay earned a draw against Phoenix Rising, and Las Vegas fell at home to New Mexico United. Those results kept Lexington, Phoenix, and Las Vegas within striking distance and strongly placed the Roots in a position to make up ground in the playoff race this week.
Things could have gone even better for Oakland. Colorado Springs scored two goals in second-half stoppage time to earn the three points. Sacramento scored in the 83rd minute to salvage a point. Still, the Roots will take it.
After the weekend, this is how things stand in the Western Conference:
Still, the weekend offered the Roots a precious gift: clarity. At this point, the Roots no longer hold a game in hand on most of their competition. Oakland knows exactly where they stand and what they need to do. They now truly understand the criticality of the match on Saturday against Lexington. It’s always been a six-point match, but now it’s a match that can bring the Roots within a point of Lexington.
This week also gives the Roots the opportunity to leap Phoenix and Las Vegas in the standings. Phoenix hosts Tulsa and Las Vegas travels to Orange County.
These possibilities exist only with one reality this week: the Roots need to earn three points. The scoreboard watching is over. The favorable results arrived. Now it is up to the Roots to take advantage of them on the field.
Can the Roots Slow Down Lexington?
For the Roots to take advantage of the beneficial week off, they will need to find a way to slow down Lexington in transition. Lexington leads the Western Conference by a wide margin in fast breaks per 90 (1.65). They’ve parlayed many of these fast breaks into dangerous scoring chances. The team leads the Western Conference with 57 big chances created and ranks in the upper third of the Conference in goals scored.
Lexington’s success in transition is fueled in part by its ability to win the ball back. The club ranks second in the league in interceptions per match (9.7). The interceptions allow the team to disrupt possession and quickly attack opponents.
The Roots’ underlying metrics could directly play into Lexington’s hands. Oakland ranks near the bottom of the conference in fast breaks against per 90 with 1.39 breaks allowed. Only Las Vegas and Monterey Bay concede more. The Roots dominate possession and rank third in the league in passes per possession (4.70). That sustained possession and high number of passes could create plenty of opportunities for Lexington to turn the ball over and attack quickly.
The Roots’ offensive struggles may further exacerbate the situation. In an effort to ignite the struggling attack, the Roots have frequently pushed numbers forward. All season, the Roots have pushed Jesus de Vicente, Julian Bravo and the other fullbacks high up the pitch. It’s one of the biggest reasons that Ryan Martin has elected to go with Mark Fisher in the midfield for two straight games. After the Orange County match, Martin explained the decision by stating, “we wanted someone who could break lines and go forward.”
That attacking approach comes with a tradeoff. When Oakland loses possession, it is often forced to defend quickly in transition while players are caught higher up the pitch. That helps explain the club’s high fast-breaks-against rate and could provide Lexington with those opportunities it seeks. If the Roots fail to slow the game down, Lexington has the tools to make them pay in transition.
Does the Starting XI Double Down on Possession or Try to Shore Up Against Transition?
Lexington’s strength in transition may force Ryan Martin into a difficult balancing act. The Roots can double down on their possession-first approach and start ball-playing personnel that can limit the turnovers that trigger Lexington’s counterattacks. Alternatively, Martin could favor defensive coverage and athleticism, sacrificing some control in possession in exchange for players better suited to defend the space created when Oakland commits numbers forward.
The most obvious area where this decision will play out is at center back. Martin has elected to start Neveal Hackshaw over Michael Edwards the last two matches. This comes after Edwards had only missed ten minutes of league play prior to the switch to Hackshaw.
The tradeoff between Hackshaw and Edwards is clear. Hackshaw offers a clear advantage in distribution. Prior to the match against Orange County, we noted that, “Despite playing nearly 600 fewer minutes, Hackshaw has completed ten more accurate long balls (75) while posting a nearly identical completion rate (48.7%)…per 90… Hackshaw is averaging more than 1.5 times more long passes per match than Edwards with nearly identical accuracy.” Edwards provides a more imposing physical presence and more athleticism to recover defensively when opponents attack in transition.
Saturday presents a different challenge. Martin can attempt to reduce Lexington’s opportunities by maximizing possession with Hackshaw or he can prepare for the moments those transition opportunities arise by turning to Edwards’ greater defensive range.
In a match likely to be decided by a few key moments of transition opportunities, few lineup decisions may be more consequential than who Martin selects to address that threat.
The same balancing act may extend into midfield. Fisher’s inclusion in recent matches has added verticality and ball progression, helping the Roots break lines and commit more numbers going forward to strengthen the attack. Across his two starts in midfield, Fisher has averaged 1.17 defensive contributions and 4.68 recoveries per 90 minutes. By comparison, Bobosi averages 4.37 defensive contributions and 5.14 recoveries per 90.
Fisher’s sample size is admittedly small, and the opposition may have contributed to the disparity in defensive production. Still, both the numbers and the eye test support the idea that Fisher has been far more involved in build-up play and forward progression than Bobosi. In Bobosi’s last two starts, he only contributed just three passes into the final third per 90. Fisher averaged more than double that in his two starts (6.43).
Whether at center back or in the midfield, Saturday’s lineup may reveal how the Roots intend to answer one of the match’s defining tactical questions: should Oakland trust possession to prevent Lexington’s transition game or prioritize defensive security for the moments when the transition threat emerges?
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