The Roots return to action facing a different kind of transition threat in Indy. Lexington wanted to win the ball and run. Indy Eleven wants to win the ball and launch.
Much of Sunday’s match will stem from how the Roots handle that stylistic clash.
Can the Roots Survive Indy’s Direct Attack?
This week the Roots face another opponent that wants to get out on the counter. Indy averages 1.65 fast breaks per 90, slightly behind Lexington’s league-leading rate of 1.79. The similarities end there. While Lexington averages 4.57 passes per possession and a 12.7% long pass share, Indy Eleven only averages 2.96 passes per possession and a long pass share of 20.1%.
Lexington wins the ball and runs. Indy wins the ball and launches.
This poses serious problems for the Roots. Due to their struggles in front of goal, they often commit extra numbers forward to generate chances. They rely on numerical advantages in attack, often pushing their fullbacks and midfielders to support possession and create overloads.
Against Indy, that approach could prove risky. Last week demonstrated the Roots’ vulnerability to a team that counters quickly. What happens when a team counters even more directly? Every turnover becomes an opportunity for the Eleven to bypass Oakland’s defense with a single pass and attack open space.
Last week’s starting lineup further highlights the divide between what Oakland wants to do and Indy wants to do. It appears like Neveal Hackshaw has secured a place in the starting lineup over Michael Edwards. For all he brings to the table in terms of distribution and aerial duels, fans are familiar with his limitations in open space. Lexington exposed it on their third goal last week.
The same dynamic exists elsewhere on the field. Julian Bravo struggled with getting back on defense against a counter-heavy Lexington offense last week. It led to Ryan Martin pulling him at halftime. Martin has highlighted Mark Fisher’s willingness to go forward as a key reason for his recent starts over Bobosi Byaruhanga. While those choices can help the Roots sustain possession and progress the ball, it can leave more space for Indy to exploit with direct balls when Oakland loses possession.
If Lexington exposed Oakland’s vulnerability to transition, Indy arrives with a style designed to exploit it even more ruthlessly. If the Roots can withstand those attacks, it will go a long way towards determining whether they can keep their playoff hopes on life support.
Can the Roots Break Down Indy?
The Roots have struggled to break down all defenses all year.
Ironically, they’ve been even worse against teams that invite them to try.
After the Birmingham game in June, Martin stated that, “It’s so hard when you’re playing low blocks” and that to beat a low block requires, “incredible quality in those final moments” and elite “precision.”
Since then, the Roots have rarely faced teams willing to concede possession and territory. Pittsburgh and Orange County SC are the only teams the Roots have faced since June to post field tilt and possession rates below 50%.
The results of those games?
A scoreless loss to Pittsburgh in which they finished with 72% of the possession and no shots on target and a 1-1 draw against Orange County SC that required a goalkeeper error on a Florian Valot shot.
Indy is exactly the kind of team that has given the Roots problems all year. They boast the lowest possession rate in the league (39.4%). They concede possession and territory, allowing opponents to spend plenty of time in their final third without necessarily giving up dangerous changes. Their field tilt rate is 47%. They absorb pressure as they concede possessions and allow 13.7 shots per 90. Still, they do not concede much, as they only give up 1.22 goals per 90, a rate that ranks in the top third of the league.
Indy is comfortable letting opponents have the ball as long as they keep them away from dangerous areas. It’s a scenario that has repeatedly flummoxed the Roots. The Roots may dominate possession and territory, but unless they can translate that into genuine chances, Roots fans may once again find themselves singing the same old tune: all the possession in the world and no goals to show for it.
Do We See Bruno Lapa and Peter Wilson Together?
If the Roots are going to break down Indy’s defense, they may finally need to play their last card: Bruno Lapa and Peter Wilson together.
Following the San Antonio match, we noted that, “Since Lapa’s first appearance against Las Vegas and the three subsequent games , Lapa and Wilson have only played together for 87 minutes out of a possible 360.”
Since then, not much has changed. The pair did not share the field against Orange County. Against Lexington, they played together for only the final five minutes after Lapa did not start due to a groin injury.
All told, Wilson and Lapa have shared the field for just 92 of a possible 540 minutes since Lapa’s arrival.
With the Roots’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread, that needs to change if Lapa is healthy.
In our discussion of the “Prayer Circle Formation,” we noted that Lapa, “is one of the few players capable of occupying the central space that sits vacant in the ‘Prayer Circle Formation.’ He can be the connective tissue that unlocks opportunities for Wilson.”
Martin stated he’s “absolutely” considering playing Lapa and Wilson together and that his “hope is Bruno continues to get his fitness and build his connection with Pete.”
At some point, the Roots need to find out what they have with the two. If Lapa and Wilson are going to be the combination that saves Oakland’s season, there’s no reason to wait any longer.