The Roots return to the Coliseum on Saturday for a crucial matchup against Phoenix Rising FC. With just a few matches remaining, every point matters in th playoff race. Three points would be a massive boost to Oakland’s postseason hopes. A draw would keep them afloat. A loss would represent a significant setback and a possible death sentence.
The result may ultimately come down to three key questions:
Who Replaces Peter Wilson’s Production?
For the Roots to secure three points and keep their playoff hopes alive, it is extremely likely that they will need to do something they have not done in three months: score more than one goal.
Saturday’s match represents the third meeting between Oakland and Phoenix. Both were high scoring affairs. The two sides drew 2-2 in March and the Roots went to Phoenix and secured a 4-3 victory in June.
Phoenix’s recent matches further demonstrate consistent offensive output. In their last six matches, Phoenix has scored at least one goal. They have scored at least two in half of them.
It’s extremely likely that the Roots will need to score multiple goals for a chance at victory.
The question looms: who will score them?
Peter Wilson will miss the match due to international duty. It’s a crushing blow after Wilson secured his starting position and responded by scoring goals in two consecutive matches.
Not only that, but Wilson made his impact felt against Phoenix the last time the two sides faced off. In the 4-3 victory, Wilson scored two goals and assisted on one. The attention Wilson consistently garners from defenses also freed up Florian Valot for Valot’s goal. It was a sterling performance that earned him Man of the Match honors and a 9.4 match rating on FotMob.
In June, Wilson was at the center of nearly everything Oakland did offensively. On Saturday, the Roots will need to find a new answer against a Phoenix side that has consistently found ways to score.
The answer may be by committee. Wilson is one, if not the, best striker in the league. No one player can replace him. It may need to come from multiple sources. Players like Florian Valot, Wolfgang Prentice, Bruno Lapa, Jesus de Vicente, and Bertin Jacquesson will need to step up and collectively replace the Golden Boot Winner.
While several players will be asked to shoulder a greater attacking burden, much of the spotlight will fall on Wolfgang Prentice. Earlier in the season, when Wilson struggled to find goals, Prentice carried the attack with his production. Prentice’s subsequent drought, where he did not log an assist or score a goal for three months, mirrored many of the Roots’ struggles. On Sunday, that streak ended. He assisted on Peter Wilson’s goal against Indy Eleven. If the Roots find the goals they need against Phoenix, there is a good chance Prentice will play a major role in creating them.
Can the Roots Exploit Phoenix’s Goalkeeper Play?
Phoenix’s goalkeeper play may be a silver lining for the Roots on Sunday.
Veteran keeper Patrick Rakovsky has started 21 matches. In those matches, he had conceded 29 goals (1.4 per match). His underlying metrics further reflect a potential liability for Phoenix. His save percentage of 62.3 ranks 18th out of 23 qualifying players. Despite facing about 11 shots per game, he only makes 2.3 saves per match.
The most damning statistic?
USL Tactics keeps track of a statistic called goals prevented, a stat that keeps track of how many goals a keeper saves above or below expectation across the season.
Phoenix’s goals prevented sits a -6.87. Phoenix keepers have allowed nearly seven more goals than expected. The number is the second worst mark in the conference and third worst across the league.
For an Oakland attack that has struggled to consistently generate chances and convert chances, Phoenix’s goalkeeping issues could provide a rare opportunity.
All season, the Roots have struggled to convert the limited chances they create. Against Phoenix, the numbers suggest that they may not need to be as clinical as they normally would. If Phoenix’s goalkeeper struggles continue, even a modest attacking performance could be enough to produce the multiple goals that appear likely to be needed for three points.
The opportunity becomes even more important given Peter Wilson’s absence. If the Roots’ attack can consistently test the keeper, Phoenix’s weakness in goal could help offset the striker’s absence. In a situation where every point matters in the playoff race, simply forcing the keeper into difficult saves may be enough to create the offensive breakthrough Oakland so desperately needs.
How do the Roots Elect to Defend Crosses?
Saturday’s match represents the third meeting between Oakland and Phoenix. In those two matches, the Roots have given up five goals. Three of them came from crosses.
The vulnerability has not been limited to one player. Time and time again, Phoenix has been able to find space in wide areas in transition moments and deliver dangerous balls into the penalty area. The Roots’ inability to deal with those moments cost them two points in March and created a nail-biter in June.
The threat is especially concerning given the stakes of Saturday’s match. As stated previously, the Roots have not scored more than one goal in a league match since June. Even if the Roots do have an offensive breakthrough, they may not have the firepower to overcome multiple defensive mistakes.
Looking back at the previous matches, many of Phoenix’s strongest opportunities and goals came in moments of transition. The space afforded by transition allowed Phoenix the time and space to deliver accurate crosses into the box that they converted.
The question becomes: do you eliminate the space or dominate the air?
And like so many times in the past month, the tactical question will shine a spotlight on the center back position.
Neveal Hackshaw dominates the air. His aerial duels won percentage of 79.3% ranks in the top 10% of the league. For comparison, Michael Edwards’ rate sits at 57.7%, a number that sits in the bottom third of the league. His aerial dominance makes him uniquely equipped to deal with the type of service Phoenix has used to hurt Oakland in previous matches.
Yet, the matchup is not quite that simple.
Often times the eye test can reveal just as much as statistics.
When Hackshaw plays, it is clear how his pace limitations impact the whole defense and attack. It makes it more difficult to press. The defense gets exploited in moments of transition. Overlapping runs force him into difficult decisions that can compromise the defense.
And some of the team-level numbers point in the same direction. Neveal Hackshaw’s +/- per 90, which measures the Roots’ goal differential with Hackshaw on the field sits -0.61. Edwards’ is -0.18. On-Off which measures the team’s goal differential with a player on the field versus team’s differential without him on the field further reflects this. Hackshaw’s is -1.19 and Edwards is +0.14.
The decision ultimately comes down to identifying the greater threat. If Oakland believes Phoenix’s danger comes primarily from balls into the box, Hackshaw’s abilities may be worth the tradeoff. If the greater concern is Phoenix accessing those crossing opportunities from transition moments in the first place, Edwards’ mobility may once again earn him the nod.