It’s come down to the wire. Judgement Day.
The Roots travel to Sacrament for the season finale, needing a positive result and help elsewhere to keep their playoff hopes alive.
What at Stake in the Season Finale?
Prior to last weekend, there was still a glimmer of hope that Sacramento would have nothing to play for against an Oakland side with everything on the line.
That hope disappeared with Sacramento’s road victory El Paso.
The result threw a huge monkey wrench into the playoff picture. With the victory, Sacramento climbed to 48 points and moved within striking distance of home-field throughout the Western Conference playoffs.
This weekend, first-place El Paso (50 points) and second-place New Mexico (49 points) play each other. If they play to a draw, the Republic can clinch the number one seed with a victory over the Roots.
The situation further complicates things for the Roots, who need plenty of help to sneak into the playoffs.
Oakland clinches a playoff spot with a win if Orange County (vs. San Antonio) and Phoenix (vs. Lexington) both tie or lose.
If the Roots draw, they need Orange County and Phoenix to both lose.
Going on the road against the team’s biggest rivals, who are riding a twelve-game unbeaten streak, Oakland needs a positive result and help from elsewhere to make the playoffs.
It’s a difficult, uphill task.
But like I wrote in my “Loved, Hated, Unsure” article, the East Bay loves grit.
I wouldn’t want the playoffs any other way.
Can the Roots Take Advantage Before Sacramento Settles In?
Like the Roots, Sacramento has found ways to secure results in gritty, resilient efforts during their unbeaten streak.
One area where the Roots may be able to hurt Sacramento is in the opening minutes of each half.
In three of their last four matches, Sacramento has conceded a goal in the opening stretch of each half. Against Las Vegas, Sacramento gave up a goal in the 13th minute and the 50th minutes. The Republic conceded nine minutes into the match against FC Tulsa. Three weeks ago, Colorado Springs scored three minutes after half time.
Sacramento has displayed a tendency to play themselves into matches. The pattern hasn’t gone unnoticed by Sacramento’s supporters. Quail City Soccer, the Republic’s fan-run publication, stated “Republic and the Collins’ management crew kind of struggles to come up with game plans leading into games.”
The criticism is consistent with Sacramento’s slow starts. They didn’t log a shot on target until the 36th minute against Las Vegas, “struggled to settle into the match early” against Tulsa, and Colorado Springs, “was the better side for stretches of the opening half.”
The negative for the Roots? They rarely score in the first fifteen minutes of the first half. In their last ten matches, they’ve only accomplished the feat once against Phoenix. Before that, they hadn’t scored a goal in the first fifteen minutes of a match since April against FC Tulsa.
The second half is a different story. Oakland has scored in the opening fifteen minutes after halftime in three of its last ten matches. Combine that with Sacramento’s struggles starting matches and coming out of the break, the opportunity is clear. If the Roots want to catch the Republic before they settle into the match, the opening minutes of either half might be their best chance.
The opportunity is there. It’ll be up to Ryan Martin to press the right button to ensure the Roots take advantage.
How do the Roots Stop Memo Rodriguez?
Memo Rodriguez is on a heater.
Despite only appearing in 22 matches and starting 20, Rodriguez ranks in the top 5% of the league at his position in assists, passes, chances created, big chances created. He’s FotMob’s highest rated player on the season (7.69). During Sacramento’s unbeaten streak, Rodriguez has been the most pivotal piece of Sacramento’s attack.
His influence has been just as apparent in clutch moments. Over the past month, Rodrgiuez has came up huge for Sacramento. Last weekend against El Paso, Rodriguez scored in the 87th minute to put Sacramento ahead. The week before, he won a penalty against Colorado Springs in the 75th minute that Kyle Edwards converted to secure a draw. Against Tulsa, Rodriguez converted a free kick from outside the penalty area in the 89th minute to salvage another draw.
Dating back to September 26, Rodriguez has scored or assisted in four of Sacramento’s five matches, totaling five goals and two assists. In the other match, he won the penalty that earned Sacramento a point.
Ryan Martin will need to decide what lineup, especially in the midfield, gives the Roots the best chance of slowing Rodriguez down.
At this point, we should consider Tommy McCabe a lock. It’s clear that Martin’s wagon is hitched to McCabe. The interesting decision will be who Martin pairs with McCabe. I don’t envision the Roots starting Tyler Gibson, Tommy McCabe, and Bobosi Byaruhanga together in the midfield again. That leaves Martin with a choice between Gibson and Byaruhanga.
Starting Gibson alongside McCabe would prioritize experience and positional discipline. The pair’s experience would allow them to read passing lanes, maintain the defensive shape, and remain composed after winning possession.
Byaruhanga would provide athleticism and a ball-winning profile that Gibson does not. He’s better suited to step forward, recover ground, and disrupt Rodriguez. The only question is whether Byrauhanga can use that athleticism without sacrificing the positioning and decision-making needed to protect the space behind him or effective link play between the back four and the attack.
Neither option comes without risk. There isn’t an obvious answer. But with Sacramento’s attack running through Rodriguez, Martin’s midfield selection will go a long way toward determining whether the Roots can secure the result needed to have a chance at the playoffs.